I have been speculating how Al-Qaeda might be gaming the upcoming USA Presidential election. Here's how I got to this point.
The purposes of Al-Qaeda apparently are "to establish Islamist states throughout the world, overthrow ‘un-Islamic regimes’, expel US soldiers and Western influence from the Gulf, and capture Jerusalem as a Muslim city," according to a Wikipedia article, quoting the US Defense Department.
Getting US soldiers out of Gulf states cannot be done militarily because of superior might of allied arms. Al Qaeda's only real option is to wear us down so that WE bring our troops home. I suspect at least a two-pronged strategy: first, to kill and maim as many allied troops and innocents in Iraq as possible, and second, to minimize terrorist attacks in the USA. All to the good if it looks as if they are still trying to hurt us in our homeland using second string terrorist cells. But surely they know that another 9/11-type attack would kindle American fury, and seriously set back their aims of expelling the infidels from what they consider to be the lands of Islam.
If this theory is correct, to get the western allies out of the Gulf, Al Qaeda will tune its behaviors in the Gulf and in the USA to maximize the chances of electing an anti-war president. This is the unseen hand I am speculating about. Al Qaeda has shown itself adept in the use of media, and their strategists must be just as carefully tracking the USA election as they are events in Anbar province in Iraq.
I fear that once the allies have gone home, Al Qaeda will turn to the next items on its agenda. Just as before the allies went into Afghanistan and Iraq, that will include attacks here at home, and stepped up terror attacks in Israel and Europe. I fear we will see attacks that make 9/11 look like small change in the jihad.
Electing an "anti war" President, of whatever party, could be just what Al Qaeda wants to advance its agenda.
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